This Week in Alberta - Read My Lips

Ending speculation about possible tax hikes, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach announced Tuesday the province is not increasing personal or corporate taxes to deal with Alberta's growing financial woes.

"As long as I'm premier of this province, there will be no tax increases ... No tax increases, period," Stelmach forcefully told reporters after a cabinet meeting in Calgary.

This story deserves attention, and not just because it's the only recorded instance of the words "Stelmach forcefully" being used in that order (Seriously. Don't believe me? Check out google.).

No, this story deserves attention, because of the baffling Liberal response, which was - "well...maybe we should raise taxes":

While hiking taxes should be a last resort, it should still be an option for a government to consider, said Alberta Liberal finance critic Dave Taylor.

*CG smacks head on desk repeatedly*

But before anyone thinks I've gone soft on Steady Eddie, the rest of the press conference was vintage Stelmach:

Stelmach also said he's immediately rolling back the liquor tax increases that were introduced in the spring budget. That move will reduce government revenues by $180 million a year — and add to this year's deficit that had already been projected to reach almost $5 billion.

Stelmach said he was never comfortable with the April jump in liquor prices when the government markup was boosted by $1.30 for a dozen beer, 75 cents for a bottle of wine and $2.89 for a 750 ml bottle of spirits.

"It was something that I had a hard time agreeing with; it's been bothering me all that time," he admitted.

"We have to … continue to work to reduce the cost of doing business in this province. That's the way you build Alberta's future, and I tell you that Albertans expect confidence and stability in these very, very difficult economic times, and that is my focus," he said. "So just to close: cold beer, hot day, during very difficult economic times."

So, to recap. Stelmach was "never comfortable" with his own budget. Well, that's reasuring.

And now, less than three months later, he has completely reversed himself for no apparent reason other than to project "confidence and stability". Uh-huh.

Calgary Grit Exclusive: Stephen Harper's High School Yearbook Picture

Someone buy this man a watch...

G8: The Movie

The Daily Beast casts Daniel Baldwin as Stephen Harper (h/t Wherry).

Beyond the physical similarities, I do like this casting. Both men have had to battle horrible problems - for Baldwin, cocaine addiction; for Harper, being tardy for photo-ops.

It's July...

...which means the bar for what constitutes a scandal has been set fairly low. So, with that in mind, let's take a look at the two scandlettes making news this week.

First up:

Minister of State for Tourism Diane Ablonczy is no longer responsible for the delivery of a key tourism stimulus package, and one of her caucus colleagues says it's because her office gave some of the money to a gay pride parade.

Saskatchewan MP Brad Trost, a fellow Conservative, told the anti-abortion website LifeSiteNews that Ablonczy was being punished for the decision to give $400,000 from the Marquee Tourism Events Program to Toronto's Pride Parade, which was held this year on June 28.

Trost was quoted as calling it "a very isolated decision" that was not supported "by a large majority of the MPs."

If I ever decide to write down my own set of "political rules", one would be that when a Tory MP you've never heard of is talking to an anti-abortion website, you kind of know it's going to be a bad news story for the Conservatives.

Our second scandlette is what I hope gets dubbed "the wafer waffle", but it will probably become known as some god-awful (no pun intended) "gate" scandal:

OTTAWA — A spokesman for Stephen Harper says the prime minister did not pocket a communion wafer given to him by a Roman Catholic priest at a funeral in New Brunswick last week.

The prime minister is under fire from a senior priest in the province who has demanded an explanation about what happened to the wafer, which is supposed to be swallowed.

Spokesman Dimitri Soudas says Harper accepted the wafer offered to him at the funeral of former governor general Romeo LeBlanc and then swallowed it.

Msgr. Brian Henneberry, vicar general and chancellor in the Diocese of Saint John in New Brunswick, says it was unclear what happened to the wafer - and says it would be scandalous if the prime minister put it in his pocket.

A video posted YouTube shows Harper taking the host, but does not show him swallowing it afterward.

I have to confess, this one doesn't really bother me (but, then again, I'm not Catholic). I mean, it's obvious that Harper wasn't trying to intentionally snub anyone...to suggest otherwise is kind of silly. It's easy to flub the proper protocol from time to time - let's just cut the guy some slack and move on.

No, of the two, I think the fiasco surrounding the pride parade is more telling. It shouldn't come as a shock to anyone that there's some hostility towards the gay community in the Tory caucus, but to punish a Minister for appearing somewhat supportive? That's weak.

Vancouver Interviews: Carolyn Bennett on the Change Commission

With the Liberal fundraising numbers back on track, it's tempting to think that everything is hunky dory in Liberal land. But there's still a lot of work to do.

We haven't heard much about the change commission of late - hopefully it won't just be another report that gathers dust.

Here's an interview I did with Carolyn Bennett about the Change Commission, back during May's leadership convention.



See also: Ralph Goodale on Western Alienation, Scott Brison on the economy

The Raitt Tape Gate Court Tape...transcripts

The first transcript of court proceedings from the Raitt Gate hearing - thanks to the anon e-mailer who sent it my way.

Jasmine MacDonnell vs The Halifax Herald Limited and Stephen Maher
June 8, 2009:

(excerpts)

Michelle Awad, lawyer for Jasmine MacDonnell, questions Steve Maher if he knows who owned the lost binder:

AWAD: “Now, beginning at paragraph 18 [referring to Maher’s affidavit] you speak to Ms. MacDonnell’s resignation from her position as Director of Communications at the Department of Natural Resources

MAHER: “Yes, I do.”

AWAD: “And you reference the leaving of a binder behind at CTV’s Ottawa studios.”

MAHER: “Yes”

AWAD: “You don’t know whose binder that was, correct?”

MAHER: “I’ve been told that it was the Minister’s binder”

AWAD: “You don’t know whether Ms. MacDonnell had her own binder that she in fact left with that day?”

MAHER: “No, I don’t know”

Later on Robert Grant, lawyer for the Halifax Herald, says the very fact that MacDonnell left the recorder is newsworthy given she also left the binder at CTV, demonstrating a pattern of carelessness:

GRANT: “I might add my lord that there is, part of the interest in the recording and the fact that the recording device was left for four months without being picked up is it relates to Ms. MacDonnells performance as the Director of Communications for the Minister, the Minister’s judgement in promoting Ms. MacDonnell to that position. It ties in with, perhaps, a pattern of carelessness, which led to Ms. MacDonnell’s resignation for leaving the secret briefing documents, the binder containing secret documents at the, at CTV.”

Later, Michelle Awad stated there is “no evidence” that the binder belonged to Ms. MacDonnell, implying that the binder belonged to and was left by Ms. Raitt.

AWAD: “My friend also mentioned that, I guess Mr. Maher, in his draft article, has characterized Ms. MacDonnell as careless, the Minister’s judgment may be questionable in that she promoted Ms. MacDonnell. That’s how they want to spin this story my lord. It’s not about medical isotopes. The Chalk River shutdown was in May – the conversation that was recorded inadvertently was in January. This isn’t about last week or the last two weeks medical isotope issue, this is about a private conversation. Not a confidentiality question, a privacy question, and the rights exist, in my submission, in this country. Mr. Grant suggested that the binder that was left at CTV was Ms. MacDonnell’s; there’s no evidence of that before your lordship, that’s never been demonstrated. Similarily that she “lost” her job, my lord the evidence is absolutely that she resigned.”

June Poll Soup

Well, after months of consistent gains, the Liberal momentum stalled in June, with their mean lead on the Tories down to 2 points.


Ekos (June 25-29, n = 2262 demon dialed)

Lib 32.2%
CPC 31.0%
NDP 16.2%
Green 11.5%
BQ 9.0%


Nanos (June 17-21, n = 781 telephone)

Lib 36.3%
CPC 32.2%
NDP 16.8%
BQ 9.8%
Green 4.8%


Angus Reid (June 17-18, n = 1005 online)

CPC 32%
Lib 31%
NDP 18%
BQ 11%
Green 7%


Ipsos (released June 20, n = 1000 telephone)

Lib 35%
CPC 34%
NDP 13%
BQ 10%
Green 8%


Harris-Decima (May 28-June 8, n = 2000 telephone)

Lib 35%
CPC 31%
NDP 15%
BQ 9%
Green 8%


OVERALL (change since May in brackets)

Lib 33.9% (-0.6%)
CPC 32.0% (+0.2%)
NDP 15.8% (+0.8%)
BQ 9.8% (+0.8%)
Green 7.9% (-1.9%)



ALSO...

-This CROP poll is spun as the end of the Ignatieff honeymoon in Quebec, but an 8 point gain vis-a-vis the Bloc isn't a bad way to end the honeymoon in my humble opinion. (And Leger has the Grits and BQ tied)

-There's a new site for polling info - threehundredeight.com (wherever did they get that name idea, eh?). There's nothing super high level as of yet, but it seems to be doing a good job posting poll results, and they do have a funky graph on pollster biases.

-Speaking of which, there's some interesting back and forth between Paulitics and Ipsos Senior VP John Wright.

-The usual Canada Day poll is out. In addition to the standard ("we love our country", "we're different from the US", yada yada yada), there's majority support for ditching the Monarchy - something I'd be completely onside with.

Peace, Order, and Good Government

With Canada Day here, it's a good time to reflect on the state of politics in this country. And the one conclusion I reach is: man, are Canadian politics ever boring compared to the States. I mean, even the "boring" US governors get embroiled in juicy scandals:

South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, just back from a secret trip to Argentina unknown to his staff or his wife, admitted Wednesday he has carried on an extramarital affair with a woman in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

[...]

The South Carolina governor had not been seen in public since June 18. When questioned, Sanford's staff told media outlets Sanford was hiking on the Appalachian Trail. But Sanford was spotted Wednesday in Atlanta, Georgia's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.

Sanford said he had been in Buenos Aires. He said it was his fault for "shrouding this larger trip."

This following Eliot Spitzer's prostitutes, Rod Blagojevich selling a senate seat, James McGreevey's secret gay affair, and a slew of other high-profile governor scandals. And, say what you will about Sarah Palin or Ah-nuld, but at least they're interesting.

In comparison, what do we get from our Premiers? Danny Williams raising his voice on a talk radio show? OH MY GOD! Diverging accounting systems being used in BC? Man, will Colbert ever have fun with that one, eh?

Seriously, it's as if there was a reality show to find the 10 most bland, boring, middle aged white guys, and the winners are now our provincial Premiers.

And things appear to be worsening. It's not like Rodney MacDonald was a wild news maker, but at least he played the fiddle. Instead, he gets replaced by...I dunno...some dude who is already the "stump the At Issue Panel" punch line, a position routinely given to the most bland, unrecognizable politicians in Canada. We still haven't recovered from the tragic loss of Ralph Klein from the Premier ranks a few years ago; say what you will about Ralph, but at least he could be counted on to entertain. Instead, he gets replaced by a man so boring, he was described as follows by Graham Thompson:

If we're ever in the situation where the world is about to be destroyed by a giant asteroid in 15 minutes, somebody should have Premier Ed Stelmach hold a news conference and broadcast it around the globe.

For anyone watching, that final quarter of an hour will seem like an eternity. At the 10-minute mark people will be cheering on the asteroid.

To sit through a Stelmachian news conference is to witness an end to the laws of relativity and syntax as we know them.

Look, I'm not saying it's a good thing to have Governors or Premiers embroiled in scandal. But would it kill Gary Doer to get arrested for streaking across the field at a Bombers game, or something?

You May be seated

After her befuddling decision to run in Central Nova last election, Elizabeth May appears to be on the right track:

OTTAWA–The federal Green party is expecting an election this fall and the new, number-one strategic priority is to make sure leader Elizabeth May has a seat in the House of Commons when it's over.

"Now the party is convinced that our number-one goal is to elect me to the House of Commons. So that changes quite a lot of things," May told Green party members in Eastern Ontario yesterday at an election-preparedness briefing.

May says she's ready to switch ridings to make that happen and is now deciding whether she should run in Guelph, Owen Sound or on Vancouver Island in the next campaign.

Her short list also includes Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley in Nova Scotia, now vacant because of the retirement of independent MP Bill Casey, a former Conservative.

The Green leader confirmed publicly for the first time yesterday that she's unlikely to run again in Central Nova, where she was defeated by Defence Minister Peter MacKay in the 2008 election. (MacKay won 46 per cent of the vote in Central Nova, while May won 32 per cent.)

The party is polling and testing the ground, in an unprecedented way, May said, in ridings such as Guelph, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, and Saanich-Gulf Islands, where the Greens did well last year.

Having recently updated my election spreadsheet, I figured I'd have some fun and try and look at where May stands the best chance of winning.

To get a rough idea, I took the average vote totals from the past three elections, and made the following two assumptions:

1. The Green vote will double
2. May will convert half of everyone who currently has the Greens as their second choice. To get these numbers, I averaged out the second choice preferences of the final Ekos, Angus, and Decima 2008 election polls. For example, 18% of Conservative voters and 22.6% of Liberal voters listed the Greens as their second choice, so I transferred 9% of the Tory vote and 11.3% of the Liberal vote in every riding to the Greens.

This isn't intended to predict how May would fare...only to give a relative ranking of seats, based on how close the Greens are to winning the seat (projected Green vote - highest vote total of another party). I did try different variations of the above formulas, and the results were all similar.

So, based on this, what are the ten most winnable seats for the Greens?

1. Guelph (Lib)
2. Saanich-Gulf Islands (CPC)
3. Victoria (NDP)
4. Vancouver Centre (Lib)
5. Ottawa Centre (NDP)
6. Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound (CPC)
7. Esquimalt Juan De Fuca (Lib)
8. West Vancouver Sunshine Coast yada yada (CPC)
9. Central Nova (CPC)
10. BC Southern Interior (NDP)

Off the bat, we can strike Central Nova from the list - it's only there because of the increased May-vote in 2008. If you base this on only the 2004 and 2006 elections, it's the 146th best riding for May to run in, further illustrating just how awful a choice it was for her last time. Similarly, I tend to think the Greens are already punching a bit above their weight in Vancouver Centre, as they fielded a very strong campaign there last time, thanks to Adriane Carr.

Looking at the other 8 ridings, there's a case to be made for pretty much all of them, as most feature relatively weak incumbents, and were won on the strength of vote splitting. And the Greens seem to be on the right path, with the three ridings they're polling in (bolded above), all placing highly on my list.

Of the three, Guelph certainly seems the least daunting, with Green candidate Mike Nagy only 11% back last time - with the vote split there, May could take this riding with 30% of the vote. Running in Guelph would, however, mean tossing overboard a young man who has run for the Greens in the riding three times, growing their vote substantially over this period. It would also mean defeating a Liberal, or possibly handing the riding to the Conservatives off a Green-Liberal vote split. Given her previous statements, risking this would be out of character, but it could signal the begining of a shifting strategy where the Greens focus on running against the Liberals (and NDP), rather than the Tories.

So it shouldn't come as a surprise that the other two seats May is targeting are held by Conservatives. May would certainly enjoy giving Gary Lunn a go in Saanich Gulf Islands, as she has been highly critical of the man before. But, then again, knocking off a lower-profile target like Larry Miller (I'd wager most of his own family members haven't even heard of him) in Bruce, might be easier. On the flip side, the Green vote sky rocketed there last election, presumably on the strength of the candidate (former councilor Dick Hibma), the Greens had running.

So, taken all together, I'd expect May to make a run at Lunn. Either way, she should decide soon, and spend August and September tricycling through the riding, because direct voter contact will make a difference, and she simply won't have the time to do a lot of it during a national election campaign.

Hudak versus McGuinty in 2011

That'll be the match up, after Tim Hudak's third ballot win yesterday.

Here are the ballot-by-ballot results:

First Ballot
Hudak 3512
Klees 3094
Elliott 2729
Hillier 1014

After the first ballot, 61% of the Hillier votes switched over to Hudak, with 20% going to Klees, and 17% to Elliott (2% had no second choice).

Second Ballot
Hudak 4129
Klees 3300
Elliott 2904

51% of Elliott voters had Hudak as their second choice (or, third choice, if they were Hillier voters switching over to Elliott), while 46% had Klees.

Third Ballot
Hudak 5606
Klees 4644


So Hudak pulled off the rare feat of being a front runner who was also the top second choice preference among the supporters of the defeated candidates. While Hudak and his campaign certainly deserve some credit for pulling that off, I'm sure the short time frame and the format of the leadership race had a lot to do with it.

Front runner resentment probably runs higher among the type of people who go to delegated conventions than it does in the grass roots. That's something federal Liberals will need to keep in mind for future leadership races, now that they've switched to a WOMOV system.